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Corona crisis: when is normal expected again?

Corona crisis: when is normal expected again?


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How long could the state of emergency continue?

The worldwide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has effects that only a few weeks ago thought few possible. Many people are now asking themselves: "How long should this go on?" Well-known health experts comment on this.

The corona virus creates a situation in which some obvious things start to falter. If in doubt, call friends and family rather than meet in person, avoid large groups and put as many activities as possible in your own four walls - the announcements of the medical profession and politics are clear. Schools remain tight, as do many shops and leisure activities.

Everyday life has been turned inside out

To stop the virus from spreading quickly, many people have to change their daily routines and habits. The restrictions will become more severe than relaxed in the coming days or weeks, the virologist Christian Drosten of the Berlin Charité predicts in the NDR podcast. Many are wondering how long they have to live in the exceptional situation.

Keep social contacts to a minimum

John Ziebuhr from the Institute for Medical Virology at the Justus Liebig University in Gießen expects that the recommendations to keep social contacts to a minimum will apply for at least four to five weeks - “maybe even a few weeks longer. I think that's a reasonable size to be able to reassess the situation, ”said the infectiologist. School and daycare closings in the majority of the federal states initially apply until the end of the Easter holidays, i.e. until the middle or end of April.

More months than weeks

A few days ago, Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) said that all citizens had to prepare for longer restrictions in everyday life. "We are talking clearly about several months than over several weeks," said the CDU politician.

Find the right measure

It is an illusion to think that everything will go back to normal after the Easter holidays, virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit told ntv: “We are always talking about a period of several months where we live with these restrictions It is now a matter of finding the right measure for Germany. Nobody can say yet what that will be. In the next few days and weeks you will "see how the set screws can be loosened a bit again and how the health system can then deal with these many cases".

Is the complete lockdown coming?

"Germany needs full braking, a lockdown, at least as Italy has it now," said Stephan Ortner, director of the research institute Eurac Research in Bolzano in South Tyrol. "The necessity, but also the proportionality, of sealing off entire cities and municipalities is currently not given," said the Federal Ministry of the Interior on Monday evening. The respective state health authority would be responsible for a decision based on the Infection Protection Act.

World Medical President Frank Ulrich Montgomery says that he is “not a friend of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this also has to say when and how to pick it up again, ”he told Rheinische Post on Wednesday. "Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal?" It was not possible to close schools and daycare centers by the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until there is a vaccine.

Montgomery: The lockdown had little effect in Italy

Montgomery does not see Italy as a positive example when it comes to the question of a lockdown, on the contrary: "They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the spread of viruses within the lockdown at all." A lockdown was a political desperation measure because one believes that coercive measures will get ahead than you could come up with reason.

No forecast of the duration of the measures

The experts from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) do not want to speculate about possible scenarios. "We can not make a forecast on the duration of the measures, and the duration of the infection cannot be predicted, that depends on measures and a vaccine development," said a spokeswoman. "Wait" is obviously the order of the day. In ten to twelve days at the earliest, it can be said whether the measures now taken will bring anything.

Up to two thirds could become infected in the next 2 years

According to the RKI, 60 to 70 percent of the population in Germany could become infected with the new corona virus within a period of one to two years. With a population of around 83 million, this corresponds to around 50 to 58 million people. This estimate is based on model calculations, RKI President Lothar Wieler explained. When calculating the model, the experts assumed that there was currently no immunity, no therapy or no vaccine against the pathogen.

A miracle cure is not to be expected in the near future

Ziebuhr believes that the chance that an active ingredient will be found in the coming weeks that will be available in sufficient quantities is unlikely. The wave is currently simply too fast.

Many infected people do not fall ill

According to the RKI, the pandemic will stop on its own accord if more and more people become infected and build up immunity. Of those infected with RKI previously registered in Germany, many have not yet become ill or have recovered.

What is the situation in other European countries?

Many European countries severely restricted public life. In Austria there is almost a curfew due to the pandemic. In Belgium, there is an almost three-week curfew from Wednesday noon. France closed all restaurants, shops and bars. The almost 47 million inhabitants of Spain must also stay at home if possible. As a result of an alarm, most stores were closed and local and long-distance traffic reduced by around 50 percent. After Italy, Spain is the most affected country in Europe by the crisis. (vb; source: Anne Pollmann, dpa)

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